Random Thoughts
We welcome Rachel Frey to the picks this year, who I’m sure will look to continue the Frey tradition of excellence in the picks.
Also, check this out: http://wshelton2.wordpress.com. (needs to be viewed in full screen on explorer) That’s right, the picks now have their own website. Each week at the site you can find this email, followed by the spreadsheet, which will be updated as I receive your picks. Hopefully, this makes it much easier and more enjoyable to track things over the weekend.
23 games in five days on the opening slate, and away we go…
Quote of the Offseason
“You’re hired!” – CBS College Sports Network to Trev Alberts. The honeymoon is over.
Five Most Homosexual Things of the Offseason
1. Brandon Warren: Will he or won’t he?
Look, we can all get pissed off later if it’s won’t he. But this whole no news is good news stuff is ridiculous – either let the kid play or let us stop throwing to him six times for 41 yards in our scrimmages with the ones. (EDIT: Well, I wrote that yesterday, and now (Tuesday) he’s a free man and ready to roll with our offense. Still, the waiting deserves mention.)
2. Any argument that the SEC hasn’t been the best conference in the country in the last ten years
I’m not going to lose any more brain cells on this one.
3. Georgia’s end zone celebration vs. Florida
Because it happened last October. This is this August. Let’s move on.
4. Virginia Tech
For a group of people who cry about lack of respect, they’re ranked #17 in the preseason poll with a defense that returns two starters in the front seven and an offense that was 100th nationally last year and lost every experienced skill position player. Make it make sense.
5. The new NFL-style 40 second play clock
This means a game is now over with 2:00 to play if you don’t have any time outs. I’m never for less drama.
Impressive…
5. Eric Berry, son
He was so good last year, I’m worried he can’t keep raising the bar and clearing it. But at least he’ll have plenty of help in the Vol secondary.
4. Big 12 Quarterbacks
Chase Daniel, Graham Harrell, Sam Bradford, Todd Reesing, Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson. Legitimately, they could sweep the All-American honors if something happens to Tebow.
3. Offensive Linemen
Seriously, OL is the deepest position in the country this year. Tennessee, LSU, Auburn and Alabama might all have the best line in the SEC while having a Top 10 line nationally. Oklahoma and Ohio State will roll behind their lines. There are lots of first round draft picks on the field this fall.
2. Mike Hamilton’s love for Phillip Fulmer
If you like Bruce Pearl, then you like Mike Hamilton by proxy. So love it or hate it, the eight win re-up clause in Fulmer’s new contract means Hamilton is casting his lot with Phillip. Even if you’re worried about it lowering the bar like me, it was an impressive gesture from the AD to the head coach.
Most Impressive
1. College Football is here.
Life is just better in September-December.
The State of the Vols
If you’re still trying to figure out if last season was a good year or not, you may not be in for anything more clear in 2008. The SEC has 4 teams in the preseason AP Top 10; the Vols play two of them (including #1) on the road and Florida at home, and we aren’t even the 4th team. If I had business cards, it would say this on the back of them: “The SEC is good enough that anybody can beat everybody. And Tennessee is still good enough to beat anybody.” We all believe this, we all buy into this, which creates lots of anger when we lose (at all, let alone the way we did last year) and an uncertain joy when we still find our way to Atlanta. Don’t expect the SEC’s roller coaster to stop in 2008.
But don’t expect the Vols to slow down either. The defending SEC East Champions replace Erik Ainge with Jonathan Crompton, replace Jonathan Hefney with Demetrice Morley, probably don’t replace Jerod Mayo but still have everyone else back. The same team that lost to Florida by 39 and beat Georgia by 21, and played the National Champions to a virtual draw has the talent and experience in place to put themselves in the same positions and give themselves every opportunity to win every Saturday. What’s going to happen? That’s why we play em, kids.
If I had a vote in the AP Poll…
1. Oklahoma – fewest questions, most answers
2. Georgia - is this the year they get to eat at the big boy table?
3. Florida - still the scariest offense in college football
4. Ohio State - we won’t be fooled again…
5. Missouri - did everything last year except beat Oklahoma
6. LSU - decent QB play away from being right back on top
7. USC - they can convince me on Sept. 13
8. West Virginia - may not be challenged until Auburn in October
9. Texas - Colt McCoy might play better when he’s not a Heisman frontrunner
10. Tennessee - UF and UGA have the hype, Vols have the East title
11. Wisconsin - like LSU, need only decent QB play to get to the top
12. South Florida - the best looking of the ‘07 Cinderellas
13. Auburn - will the new offense create success? defense is good enough
14. Clemson - nine years of Tommy Bowden means a nine year quest for consistency
15. Arizona State - the next best of a crowded Pac-10 second tier
16. Texas Tech - have to win the Big 12 South sooner or later or always be a gimmick
17. Kansas - was it the schedule or the team in ‘07? we’ll find out early and often in ‘08
18. Wake Forest - don’t forget the ‘06 ACC Champions with Riley Skinner
19. BYU - this year’s mid-major of choice
20. Illinois - can Juice handle the full offensive responsibility without Mendenhall?
21. Florida State - when at full strength, solid across the board
22. Alabama - Nick Saban is just as average as Mike Shula…so far
23. Oregon - can a team really replace two guys like Dixon and Stewart?
24. Boise State - Ian Johnson and company still around, still dangerous
25. South Carolina - doesn’t anybody want to play quarterback well for the ball coach?
Will’s Top 10 Players
1. Tim Tebow QB Florida - now with the power of circumcision!
2. Pat White QB West Virginia - has lined up at WR some in fall practice…
3. Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech - has “name it” numbers every week
4. Percy Harvin WR Florida - the most dynamic player in the country
5. James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State - WELL!
6. George Selvie DE South Florida - 31.5 tfl, 14.5 sacks last year
7. Chris Wells RB Ohio State - the best RB in the country…because someone has to be
8. Ray Maualuga LB USC - will put his evil inside you
9. Duke Robinson OG Oklahoma - the best in a loaded year for offensive linemen
10. Chase Daniel QB Missouri - runs the whole show for Mizzou
Here we go…
Thursday, August 28
Miami (OH) vs. Vanderbilt – 7:00 PM – ESPNU
That’s right: your 2008 college football experience begins with the Vanderbilt Commodores, in what’s otherwise known as “the game you’ll watch for one hour.” These two played in Nashville last year in a game the ‘Dores won 24-13; Miami went on to win the MAC East while Vanderbilt went on to be Vanderbilt and miss a bowl again. This time around, the RedHawks are at home and are once again the favorites in the MAC East, returning nine starters on a solid defense from last season, including MAC Defensive Player of the Year LB Clayton Mullins. Vanderbilt got accustomed to winning in the non-conference last season, but despite Bobby Johnson’s positive presence in Nashville, Vandy might be more of the old familiar in 2008: five brand new starters on the offensive line go with five new starters in the defensive front seven. George Smith and Sean Walker at back at receiver but there’s no Earl Bennett to make the real difference, and how wi ll Jeff Jennings get anything done behind that line? Whether it’s Chris Nickson or Mackenzi Adams, this isn’t a VU offense to count on. The Dores are sharp in the secondary, which may slow down a sputtery Miami offense behind QB Daniel Raudabaugh, but I simply don’t see enough weapons for this Vanderbilt team to go on the road and win against a MAC divisional favorite. Plus, it’s Vanderbilt, which means this is all a lengthy way of saying I’m still not picking them.
Miami (OH) 20 – Vanderbilt 13
South Carolina vs. NC State – 8:00 PM – ESPN
And now for the game you’ll actually be watching. Carolina was 6-1 in mid-October last year, and not much has gone right since: five straight losses, no bowl bid and no guarantees that 2008 will begin or end on higher notes. There’s talent offensively between Mike Davis, Kenny McKinley and a solid offensive line, but if the Gamecocks can’t get decent quarterback play it’s going to be all for naught. Tommy Beecher was given the keys by the Ballcoach; on Saturday he went 9 for 14 for 86 yards in a scrimmage…which was considered a vast improvement. Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia are still around, as is the trigger-happy Spurrier. The news on defense is up in the air in a different way – recovery and adjustment are critical to the success of a unit that was ripped for 33.2 per game during the five game losing streak. Eric Norwood and Jasper Brinkley are both getting their feet wet again at linebacker, but the secondary is talented with Captain Munnerlyn and Emanuel Cook.
And then there’s NC State. Tom O’Brien probably wishes he’d stayed at Boston College; State was 5-7 last year and then lost starting WR Donald Bowens for the season in fall camp with a hairline spinal fracture. The defense returns only four starters and the quarterback position is, like at Carolina, a question mark. Jamelle Eugene will have to shoulder the load at tailback and probably for the entire offense. South Carolina is a team with questions – NC State is a team with more, playing on the road. Advantage: Carolina.
South Carolina 27 – NC State 13
Baylor vs. #23 Wake Forest – 8:00 PM – Fox Sports Net
An interesting matchup if for no other reason than it’s a ranked team in action on the road on opening night. Wake is a team that could easily sneak up and win the ACC again in 2008, with nine starters back on a defense that allowed only 22 points per game last year and was 15th nationally against the run. Riley Skinner and Josh Adams return to spearhead the offense in the backfield, though three new starters on the offensive line might make for a bumpy ride at times. The game is also interesting because it features the debut of Art Briles as Baylor’s head coach after his stint at Houston. The Bears, who I’d call the Vanderbilt of the Big 12 but no one deserves that insult, will be looking for small steps as a program without a winning season since 1995. New quarterback, new running back on a team that was 111th in scoring offense and 112th in scoring defense last year. You’re welcome.
Wake Forest 34 – Baylor 10
Stanford vs. Oregon State – 9:00 PM – ESPN2
The most important matchup of opening night is this one, a Pac-10 test between a Stanford team trying to take the next step and an Oregon State team trying to reload instead of rebuild. Yvenson Bernard is gone and Lyle Moevao is the (current) starter at quarterback, but Oregon State still has plenty of talent. Ryan McCants leads a stable of backs who’ll try and replace Yvenson, but the real star offensively is WR Sammie Stroughter, fully healed and ready to go if Moevao (or Sean Canfield) can get him the ball. The Beavers were first in the nation against the run last season…and lost all seven starters in their defensive front. Trouble? Not if Stanford can’t take advantage. The Cardinal have the opposite issue, with nine starters back on a defense that wasn’t very good statistically (107th passing, 98th total) and lost their coordinator to Michigan. QB Tavita Prichard is a shaky first on the depth chart, though he does have big g ame experience (USC). The Cardinal have some potential on offense, and at home against an inexperienced defense is a good time to exercise it…I haven’t seen enough to go with Stanford here, but I think this game will be much more competitive than people think.
Oregon State 27 – Stanford 20
Saturday, August 30
#17 Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina (Charlotte) – 12:00 PM – ESPN
The biggest chance for assumptions to make a fool of you this weekend.
Virginia Tech has two quarterbacks that are average at a few things but neither of them is above average enough to beat out the other. They have zero experience at tailback and at wide receiver, and even last season when they did they finished 100th nationally in total offense. Their defense, a staple crop of Hokie football, returns only four starters. Believe it or not, no team ranked in the preseason polls is getting a bigger bump from their name value than Virginia Tech.
Now, East Carolina isn’t fully poised to take advantage either. Skip Holtz’ boys do run a more accepted two-QB system between Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass, and they too have big question marks on offense. Both teams will talk about talent, but until you see it and especially if it wasn’t good enough to get on the field last season for these two teams (ECU’s ‘07 numbers are mostly due to Chris “Maybe I Was Wrong About You” Johnson, the first round draft pick of the Titans), it’s incredibly hard for me to think that all this talent is just going to materialize all of a sudden when they hit the field.
Even ECU’s defensive weaknesses (114th against the pass, 95th total last year) may not be fully exploited by Virginia Tech’s offense. I think you’ll see two teams with a l-o-t of room to grow, though really neither may end up being very special in ‘08. If you believe in Tech’s name and the things they do – defense and kicking game – then maybe they’ll have enough of those to overcome the youth, inexperience and shoddy quarterback play on offense. But remember – VT only won this game 17-7 last season with a much different team. I don’t know what the neutral site will do either way…and I like Virginia Tech, living here they’re my second favorite team. But the gut wants what she wants.
East Carolina 20 – Virginia Tech 13
Northwestern vs. Syracuse – 12:00 PM – ESPN2
How did it get so bad for Syracuse? Really, it’s alarming what happened to the Orange(men), because if it can happen to them, it could happen to your favorite program too. It’s absurd that Northwestern is the overwhelming favorite here (and the Wildcats were 6-6 last year and return 7 on both sides, including RB Tyrell Sutton), but the ‘Cuse went 2-10 last season and are the worst team in the Big East, and it’s not even close. Last year in the eight major statistical categories (rushing, passing, scoring and total offense & defense), Syracuse was in the triple digits nationally in seven of them. Greg Robinson, who’s 7-28 in his three years at Syracuse, is the leader in the dreaded “most likely to be fired” race…I really think they’re the worst team in the BCS conferences.
Northwestern 31 – Syracuse 13
#25 Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
Two solid offenses, but Pitt’s defense was nasty last season and has seven starters back which may prevent Bowling Green – who returns every skill position player and QB Tyler Sheehan from an offense that scored more than 30 per game and tied for the MAC East title – from going off. BG’s defense is experienced as well, but with QB Bill Stull back from injury and a solid lineup with RB LeSean McCoy and a host of experienced weapons at wideout, there should be opportunities to score for the Panthers. Bowling Green has the talent to win it if they’re in it late, but I think Pitt keeps them at a healthy distance.
Pittsburgh 31 – Bowling Green 17
#5 Florida vs. Hawaii – 12:30 PM – Raycom
June Jones has left the premises and every skill position starter went with him, and there’s no Colt Brennan to save them. Four starters back on defense. Playing at Florida. The Gators are going to feel good about themselves after this one.
Florida 56 – Hawaii 9
Virginia vs. #3 USC – 3:30 PM – ABC
Does UVA have a chance? Well…
The Cavs need injured stars Cedric Peerman and Kevin Ogletree to have an immediate bounce-back impact, especially while trying to figure out which quarterback will get the job done (Peter Lalich should win the job ultimately). They lost their rush off the edge with Chris Long gone to the NFL, but return three solid linebackers and some experience in the secondary. For a team that traditionally underachieves more than most by sending tons of talent to the NFL with no titles to show for it, they’d better be on their A++ game when the Trojans come in.
I’ll say this – USC is right behind Virginia Tech in getting a preseason boost for their name recognition in the polls. Mitch Mustain for Mark Sanchez’s kneecap shouldn’t be a huge problem. And yeah, it’s USC, so there’s talent at the skill positions, but no tailback or wide receiver emerged last year as a bonifide superstar…so right now to me, with all apologies to Patrick Turner and the boys, it’s more sizzle than steak.
But the defense is flat nasty – these are the best linebackers in the country who should feast on an inexperienced QB and the rest of the offense – this is not the defense you want to see on the first Saturday of the season. UVA has a chance to be alright, but I’ll say this: they won a boatload of close games in ‘07 (six games by five points or less, three consecutive wins by one point), which is usually a warning sign that the same team isn’t going to get the same breaks the following season. Won’t matter how many breaks they get against USC, it ain’t gonna happen.
USC 38 – Virginia 10
Michigan vs. Utah – 3:30 PM – ABC
This might be the toughest pick of the weekend.
Things we know about Michigan: they’re beatable at home regardless of opponent. They’ve got RichRod. They lost just about everybody on offense…really, WR Greg Matthews and his 37 catches are it at the skill sets, and one offensive lineman returns. Then Ryan Mallett transferred to Arkansas, leaving Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan to try and learn RichRod’s complicated offense and get it ready to go with no weapons around them. Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown will bring limited experience to the table, but again, they’re running behind a green offensive line.
All this might make the Michigan defense the most important unit in the Big 10. The Wolverines return 8 starters from a Top 25 defense in scoring and total yards last season, including the entire defensive line. They’ve got a new coordinator (Stanford’s Scott Shafer) but plenty of talent, and they’re aware that they shoulder most of the responsibility for Michigan’s success. The schedule is frontloaded, so they’ll need to hit the ground running.
Things you might not know about Utah: after an injury-plagued 1-3 start, the Utes finished on an 8-1 tear, losing only at BYU in the regular season finale 17-10. At full strength and full of confidence, this is a team to take note of: Brian Johnson at QB, Darrell Mack at RB, reliable receivers and an experienced offensive line. The biggest hole on defense is at tackle, so Michigan might want to play ball control (if their line shows up). Still, this is a unit with experience back from a defense that held UCLA to 6 points and BYU to 17 last season.
Utah can win, make no mistake about that. Thanks to Appy State, Utah won’t be sneaking up on Michigan, but that also means that “home field advantage” doesn’t mean much in Ann Arbor (see Oregon the following week for further proof from last year). Michigan’s offense is a giant question mark…but still, I just don’t feel right about pulling the trigger on this one. Maybe if I lived near Ann Arbor instead of near Blacksburg, I’d have that little extra feeling to pull the trigger on the upset. But since I don’t (thank God), we’ll type “Michigan” with nervous fingers…should be a very, very enlightening game – if Utah does win, there’s only Oregon State on Oct. 2 to really separate them from an undefeated season-ending showdown with BYU…at home. But…
Michigan 23 – Utah 17
Washington State vs. Oklahoma State – 3:30 PM – Fox Sports Net
Stanford could pass Wazzou (four straight losing seasons), making the Cougars the worst team in the conference. They’ve got a new head coach (Eastern Washington’s Paul Wulff…) and will be breaking in a new quarterback. The defense had trouble keeping it competitive: five of WSU’s seven losses last season were by at least three touchdowns with the Cougs giving up at least 42 in all of those games.
The Mike Gundy/Trooper Taylor show now features Zac Robinson exclusively at quarterback. Stat of the year: last season Oklahoma State ran for 3,161 yards, and passed for 3,161 yards. 5′8″ Kendall Hunter is first on the depth chart at tailback and there are questions at receiver, but the line is strong and the yards will again be there for the Cowboys. The defense was one of the worst in the nation last year (making Oklahoma State one of the most exciting teams to watch, because they played games like 49-45 against Texas Tech, 41-39 against Kansas State, and 38-35 in a loss against Texas) – Athlon tells me that the Cowboys signed six juco players on defense, so we’ll see what kind of band-aid that is. They won’t have trouble here, but it’s still questionable if they can improve on the back to back 7-6 seasons they’ve posted in the last two years.
Oklahoma State 38 – Washington State 20
#7 LSU vs. Appalachian State – 5:00 PM – ESPN
The battle of champions, where many are predicting an LSU blowout…but don’t sleep on AppState. What’s most interesting isn’t what they did in Ann Arbor last year. Go back to 2005, when these two teams played in November. Then-#6 LSU had only a 14-0 lead going to the 4th quarter, and at that point had been outgained by AppState. The Tigers went on to win 24-0, but that was a team with JaMarcus Russell playing an AppState team with no quarterback.
This is an LSU team with no quarterback (yet) playing an AppState team with the most compellling non-FBS Heisman candidate since Steve McNair.
Armanti Edwards made a name for himself against Michigan and upheld that name all of last season, en route to leading AppState to their third consecutive National Championship (something that’s never been done at any Division 1 level). He’s back along with a ton of other returning talent. I’d wager right now that Appalachian State could compete in a conference like the Sun Belt – which doesn’t sound like much, but putting an FCS school on par with any FBS school is an accomplishment.
Now…what’s the difference between ‘07 Michigan and ‘08 LSU? Home field advantage, for one – the Ann Arbor crowd was never into the game, but thanks to that the Death Valley crowd will be on it from the first snap, which I think will be a new experience for AppState. Two, the LSU defense is much more prepared and experienced against AppState’s spread offense than Michigan was, and while the skill position players on both teams may have equal speed, my biggest concern if I was an AppState fan is how in the world their line is going to block Tyson Jackson, Ricky Jean-Francois, Marlon Favorite and Kirston Pittman. Their skill players might have a chance in space against LSU’s less experienced LBs and DBs, but the defensive front four could be in for a feast of epic proportions on Edwards.
Meanwhile, game one will be a good test of how it needs to go all season for the LSU QBs, whether it’s Jarrett Lee, Andrew Hatch or both: minimize mistakes, don’t get your team beat. If LSU doesn’t turn it over, there’s no way they lose. Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd will still catch it, the line will still block, and Keiland Williams will lead a host of fast backs. Don’t make bad decisions from under center, and LSU should win easily.
There’s certainly a chance, and anyone who says there isn’t has short and long term memory loss. But I don’t think LSU allows that chance to stay alive very long – jump on them early and don’t let them think they’re really in it, and you shouldn’t have much problem.
LSU 38 – Appalachian State 20
Louisiana Tech vs. Mississippi State – 6:45 PM – ESPN2
Did you know LaTech is in the WAC? I thought Sun Belt for sure…anyway, this is a team that was shut out by Ole Miss last year, so the boys from Starkville shouldn’t have much trouble. Now that Croom has job security and a solid defense, he needs Wesley Carroll and Anthony Dixon to become better than average players if the Bulldogs are going to continue their ascent. There are some questions on the line and there always seem to be questions when it comes to putting up points, but MSU should still be comfortable here.
Mississippi State 27 – Louisiana Tech 10
#10 Auburn vs. LA-Monroe – 7:00 PM – ESPN GamePlan
This game is brought to you by the University of Alabama.
Auburn 38 – LA-Monroe 10
Ole Miss vs. Memphis – 7:00 PM – ESPN GamePlan
Ed Orgeron for Houston Nutt is a really good deal. Jevan Snead for any of the options the Rebels have used in the past few season is also a really good deal. The tailbacks are somewhat of a question mark, but the receivers and the o-line look good. And the defense is continuing to build upon Coach O’s recruits with eight starters back and is especially good up front. The Rebel fans are getting talkative again and this could be a bowl team.
Tiger High went 7-6 last year but lost Martin Hankins at QB. They’ll also be breaking in new faces with some juco possibilities at tailback. But the rest of the offense is intact and the defense returns nine starters. Tommy West just keeps surviving down there, and with UCF’s Kevin Smith now in the NFL, Memphis could challenge for the East Division title in C-USA. Still, the Rebs, bad as they were under Coach O, have won three straight in this rivalry and Memphis comes to The Grove this year. Make it four and a good start for Nutt.
Ole Miss 27 – Memphis 10
#9 Clemson vs. #24 Alabama (Atlanta) – 8:00 PM – ABC
The big one on the opening weekend…Clemson showed last year they could start strong by winning the Bowden Bowl in the season opener. And it’s usually the finish that’s problematic for them. But come on, aren’t you a little nervous going with Clemson in the year that’s supposed to finally be their year?
They’ve got the talent, no doubt: Cullen Harper, Davis & Spiller, experienced receivers…the huge question mark is offensive line, where only the center returns. The secondary is extremely good and so are the tackles, and Clemson needs the rest of the defense to step up as well. Talented, yes. But…it’s Clemson.
Meanwhile, Alabama should have an interesting year combining the returning experience with Saban’s super recruits, something that worked well for him at LSU in year two. It’s the last hurrah for John Parker Wilson, who still has Nikita Stover and Mike McCoy to throw to and Terry Grant in the backfield. The offensive line is very, very good (as proven when they whipped Tennessee last year with half of their regular starters out). It’s defense that’s actually the bigger question mark – I’ve heard a lot of “We’re Alabama, we’ll be fine on defense” this offseason, but one has to wonder, especially playing a team like Clemson right away. But if the young kids step up and the offense is consistent, Alabama can certainly be good.
Clemson’s more talented, but when push comes to shove I’m still going with Bama. The crowd should be hot and the game entertaining, but if it’s close late I’ll take anybody over Clemson and I do want Alabama to be good by the time October 25 rolls around, which factors in. Having said that, in the eight years of doing these picks, Clemson is far and away the team I’m wrong about the most, so feel free to pick the Tigers.
Alabama 34 – Clemson 31 (2 OT)
California vs. Michigan State – 8:00 PM – ABC
Another tough call…after two years of hype, not much is expected of Cal in 2008, in large part because there are no Heisman playmakers on offense to draw national attention. Nate Longshore does return, but might be pushed by Kevin Riley. Jahvid Best will get the first duty at tailback. There’s no experience in the receiving corps, though the defense ain’t bad. Michigan State proved last year that it doesn’t matter who your coach is, you will have the midseason slide in East Lansing: 4-0 start, 1-5 in the middle, then a respectable job by winning at Purdue and home against Penn State to make it to the Champs Sports Bowl…where QB Brian Hoyer threw four interceptions and MSU lost to Boston College. Hoyer is back with RB Javon Ringer, and overall this isn’t a bad team at all (though they’ll have to replace the numbers that WR Devin Thomas put up). Michigan State lost six games last season, all of them by seven points or less. Tha t’s usually a sign that things are going to look up the following year. Cal finished 2007 on a 1-6 tear. That’s never a good sign. Sparty on the road in a mild upset.
Michigan State 27 – California 24
#6 Missouri vs. #20 Illinois (St. Louis) – 8:30 PM – ESPN
Probably the biggest game of the weekend, though Clemson-Alabama will get more hype. If it’s anything like last year’s version, it’ll be the most entertaining game of the weekend too: in ‘07, the teams combined for more than 850 yards of total offense and seven turnovers – five by the Illini – in a game that Missouri led 37-13 midway through the third quarter, then watched Illinois score three touchdowns in 5:20 to cut it to 37-34. After a field goal, Mizzou intercepted a pass at the one yard line with :51 to play to seal it. The game also included a 100 yard fumble return, a Jeremy Maclin punt return score, and all the Illinois offensive dramatics without Juice Williams, who got knocked out of the game in the second quarter. So we don’t really know what Juicey will do here, though I’m sure it’s comforting for Illini fans to know that the departed Rashard Mendenhall had only 33 yards rushing in this game last year and they still almost won.
In 2008, Missouri appears to be a legitimate National Championship contender – after all, they were last year – with only a few offensive line questions and an afterthought about who’s going to run the ball when Chase Daniel isn’t trying to repeat as Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. And the defense? 10 starters back on a team that was +13 in turnover margin last year. They did everything except stop Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, the losses are heavier in Champaign, where Mendenhall will be most missed and the Illini must have an answer; no one trusts Juice to get it done on his own. Granted, he had one spectacular game at Ohio State last year with 4 TDs…but that was one. The Illini were 109th in passing offense last year and 5th in rushing, so you see the problem without Mendenhall. When Juice does throw, Arrelious Benn is still around to catch them. The Zookers have six back on an average defense from last year…
I just don’t see it. Illinois had their chance to beat Mizzou last year and gave it away despite not having solid days from their best players. Now with their very best player in the NFL and the world on Juice’s shoulders, with Missouri thinking title? If they don’t overlook the Illini – and they shouldn’t, because they don’t play another meaningful game until October – Missouri has what it takes and could even make a statement here.
Missouri 45 – Illinois 24
#21 Oregon vs. Washington – 10:00 PM – Fox Sports Net
Fun stat: Ty Willingham, who I know a couple of us (including me) have at times in the past called one of the best coaches in college football, is 76-76-1 in 13 years.
UDub is young, but as Athlon puts it, if year four is make-or-break for Willingham, it’s unfortunate that Washington looks like they’re one more year away from really making it. Jake Locker (or “West Coast Tebow”, if you like) returns one year after breaking the Pac-10 QB rushing record. His offensive line remains mostly intact, but the skill position players are totally inexperienced. The defense – 103rd in the nation last year – returns six starters, so maybe there’s nowhere to go but up? Stilll…
Oregon has some retooling to do of their own without Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, but the Ducks are doing a fine job of staying nationally relevant for more than a decade now. And the good news for them is that Dixon and Stewart are really all they have to replace with an experienced defense coming back and a stable of talented backs. At quarterback, Nate Costa is currently atop the depth chart, but Justin Roper of Sun Bowl fame is pushing him. On their website, Mike Bellotti is using words like “inconsistent” – which is a nice thing to not hear about Jonathan Crompton, by the way.
Jake Locker will be the best player on the field and UDub may keep it close, but there’s not enough from everyone else to make up the difference. Especially at Autzen, Oregon shows no signs of taking 2008 off. This game was extremely high scoring last year (55-34 Ducks)…don’t expect quite so many fireworks.
Oregon 34 – Washington 24
Sunday, August 31
Louisville vs. Kentucky – 3:30 PM – ESPN
Steve Kragthorpe probably had the worst season of any head coach last year who didn’t get fired, as Louisville was a supposed National Championship contender that finished 6-6 and didn’t go bowling in his first season. And now all those National Championship-esque players are gone, and you’ll have to get used to new names who will have long odds to become household ones: Hunter Cantwell replaces Brian Brohm, Scott Long and JaJuan Spillman replace Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia, and Bilal Powell replaces Anthony Allen. Yikes. News isn’t any better on defense, with only four starters back to combine with the three returning on offense.
So at least, it’s something to make Kentucky feel better about themselves one year after they must replace Andre Woodson, Rafael Little and Keenan Burton. Kentucky brings back most of their defense but is missing the key component in Wesley Woodyard, who led the team in tackles last year. On offense, it appears to be Mike Hartline one and Randall Cobb two for now, which is interesting. If Randall does make the field, and I hope he does, he’s going to get a taste of the Lee Humphrey treatment if he keeps running his mouth - I don’t care what it said on your jersey in high school, it says “Kentucky” now. But that’s for another time and place.
…or maybe not. Rich Brooks told Chris Low, and I quote: “Mike Hartline would start, and we would see how the game went. If we were not moving the ball, I might make a change to Randall Cobb just to see if I could shake things up. Hartline can run a little, but Cobb can run really well. There’s a possibility early on to have a change-of-pace deal at quarterback…”
Anyway…the offense was held without a touchdown by the defense in UK’s first scrimmage, and it’s UK’s defense…so….but hey, maybe he can throw to Kyrus.
All that nonsense aside, it’s really Kentucky who’s still in better shape as a program, and after last year there’s no reason the guys who are back won’t feel like they can head up the road to Papa John’s and beat U of L again. There’s very little to like about Kentucky right now. There’s absolutely nothing to like about Louisville. Expect ugly football.
Kentucky 23 – Louisville 20
Colorado vs. Colorado State (Denver) – 7:30 PM – Fox Sports Net
This is supposed to be the year that Colorado becomes Colorado again, though they’re in the wrong conference to be trying to make an upward move. Plus they have non-conference dates with West Virginia and Florida State before the calendar hits October, but that’s a story for another day. I don’t think Dan Hawkins’ job is in jeopardy after he got them back to a bowl game last year, but continued improvement is the idea.
His boy Cody continues under center, fresh off his torching of Alabama in the Independence Bowl. But the Buffs lost that game because they couldn’t stop the Tide – they get seven starters back on a unit that gave up almost 30 points per game, so that’s gotta get better. Hawkins has targets to throw to but Colorado needs to find a running game.
Meanwhile, Colorado State has fallen off the page, going 3-9 in Sonny Lubick’s final season. Kyle Bell is still around, but otherwise there’s not much hope for immediate success. Cody Hawkins threw 14 interceptions in his first 8 games last year. He threw 1 interception in his last four games. Look for more progression.
Colorado 27 – Colorado State 3
Monday, September 1 – Labor Day
Rutgers vs. Fresno State – 4:00 PM – ESPN
Was it Rutgers or was it Ray Rice? We’re about to find out. All the other major contributers are back offensively for the Scarlet Knights, including Mike Teel and Tiquan Underwood. And eight starters return on a defense that was 17th nationally last season. Meanwhile, Fresno State is very good as well, almost the entire offense back from a group that scored 32.6 per game last season and lost only to Texas A&M, Oregon, Boise State and Hawaii. They throttled Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl, giving a little more evidence to the fact that Fresno can in fact knock off one of the big boys every now and again. Still, all the way across the lower 48 to play Rutgers might be asking too much – if the Scarlet Knights adjust well without Rice, they’ve got the talent and the friendly confines to pull it off. Fresno continues to be almost good enough on the road against major conference opponents.
Rutgers 42 – Fresno State 41 (2 OT)
UCLA vs. #18 Tennessee – 8:00 PM – ESPN
The main event…for Jonathan Crompton, the lights come on for the first time since November 2006, running an offense that none of us have ever seen before. All this glowing optimism about the Clawfense will go right out the window with a poor showing in Pasadena. But the Vols have enough horses between Arian Foster and the rest of the tailbacks, and whatever rotation hits the field at receiver, plus Brandon Warren, behind this offensive line, to score points on anybody. Crompton simply has to play within himself and not get us beat, and make the plays he needs to make.
If we can score on anybody, there certainly shouldn’t be heaps of trouble against UCLA’s defense. Gone is more than half the unit that ranked 29th in scoring and total defense last year. There’s strength at linebacker for the Bruins, but plenty of inexperience to be exploited. Meanwhile, the offense is the walking wounded with Kevin Craft the starter by default at quarterback. Kahlil Bell has potential, and the Vols will need to see something from their front seven right away when it comes to tackling in space – we know and trust Rico McCoy, but everyone else will have to earn their respect anew in 2008.
But even if it was someone other than Craft playing quarterback, our secondary should make a huge difference. The pass rush must be more effective in 2008, and the Vols have both more speed off the edge and should have better coverage in the secondary to allow it. I’d love nothing more than to see 4-5 sacks in this game, just to ease the tension.
This is a game Tennessee should win. Forget the west coast nonsense, we’ve won bigger games in Pasadena before. Expect some questions and some answers with the Clawfense, but enough points to see us through. Expect some frustration and some joy with the defense, but enough stops to ease our way. The Vols, like everyone else, are a work in progress in week one. We’ll get part of the picture on Labor Day but won’t really know it fully until we see Florida and then on down the line from there. But for the first part, the Vols should have what it takes to get it done.
Tennessee 27 – UCLA 13
